Water AlliesTier 2
at 2025 World Championships
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-6-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
26.8%
avg ELO -11.1 per match
expected value
41.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1638
· median 1638
· range 1638–1638
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1200
Q1 1464
Q3 1634
1750
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 21.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.2% | -20.9 |
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.2% | -25.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 15.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
